10 Ways to Prepare for a Post-Oil Society
The best way to feel hopeful for the future is to prepare for it.
The best way to feel hopeful about our looming energy crisis is to get active now and prepare for living arrangements in a post-oil society.
Out in the public arena, people frequently twang on me for being "Mister Gloom’n’doom," or for "not offering any solutions" to our looming energy crisis. So, for those of you who are tired of wringing your hands, who would like to do something useful, or focus your attention in a purposeful way, here are my suggestions:
1. Expand your view beyond the question of how we will run all the cars by means other than gasoline.
This obsession with keeping the cars running at all costs could really prove fatal. It is especially unhelpful that so many self-proclaimed "greens" and political "progressives" are hung up on this monomaniacal theme. Get this: the cars are not part of the solution (whether they run on fossil fuels, vodka, used frymax™ oil, or cow shit). They are at the heart of the problem. And trying to salvage the entire Happy Motoring system by shifting it from gasoline to other fuels will only make things much worse. The bottom line of this is: start thinking beyond the car. We have to make other arrangements for virtually all the common activities of daily life.
2. We have to produce food differently.
The Monsanto/Cargill model of industrial agribusiness is heading toward its Waterloo. As oil and gas deplete, we will be left with sterile soils and farming organized at an unworkable scale. Many lives will depend on our ability to fix this. Farming will soon return much closer to the center of American economic life. It will necessarily have to be done more locally, at a smaller-and-finer scale, and will require more human labor. The value-added activities associated with farming — e.g. making products like cheese, wine, oils — will also have to be done much more locally. This situation presents excellent business and vocational opportunities for America’s young people (if they can unplug their iPods long enough to pay attention.) It also presents huge problems in land-use reform. Not to mention the fact that the knowledge and skill for doing these things has to be painstakingly retrieved from the dumpster of history. Get busy.
3. We have to inhabit the terrain differently.
Virtually every place in our nation organized for car dependency is going to fail to some degree. Quite a few places (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami …) will support only a fraction of their current populations. We’ll have to return to traditional human ecologies at a smaller scale: villages, towns, and cities (along with a productive rural landscape). Our small towns are waiting to be reinhabited. Our cities will have to contract. The cities that are composed proportionately more of suburban fabric (e.g. Atlanta, Houston) will pose especially tough problems. Most of that stuff will not be fixed. The loss of monetary value in suburban property will have far-reaching ramifications. The stuff we build in the decades ahead will have to be made of regional materials found in nature — as opposed to modular, snap-together, manufactured components — at a more modest scale. This whole process will entail enormous demographic shifts and is liable to be turbulent. Like farming, it will require the retrieval of skill-sets and methodologies that have been forsaken. The graduate schools of architecture are still tragically preoccupied with teaching Narcissism. The faculties will have to be overthrown. Our attitudes about land-use will have to change dramatically. The building codes and zoning laws will eventually be abandoned and will have to be replaced with vernacular wisdom. Get busy.
4. We have to move things and people differently.
This is the sunset of Happy Motoring (including the entire US trucking system). Get used to it. Don’t waste your society’s remaining resources trying to prop up car-and-truck dependency. Moving things and people by water and rail is vastly more energy-efficient. Need something to do? Get involved in restoring public transit. Let’s start with railroads, and let’s make sure we electrify them so they will run on things other than fossil fuel or, if we have to run them partly on coal-fired power plants, at least scrub the emissions and sequester the CO2 at as few source-points as possible. We also have to prepare our society for moving people and things much more by water. This implies the rebuilding of infrastructure for our harbors, and also for our inland river and canal systems — including the towns associated with them. The great harbor towns, like Baltimore, Boston, and New York, can no longer devote their waterfronts to condo sites and bikeways. We actually have to put the piers and warehouses back in place (not to mention the sleazy accommodations for sailors). Right now, programs are underway to restore maritime shipping based on wind — yes, sailing ships. It’s for real. Lots to do here. Put down your iPod and get busy.
5. We have to transform retail trade.
The national chains that have used the high tide of fossil fuels to contrive predatory economies-of-scale (and kill local economies) — they are going down. WalMart and the other outfits will not survive the coming era of expensive, scarcer oil. They will not be able to run the "warehouses-on-wheels" of 18-wheel tractor-trailers incessantly circulating along the interstate highways. Their 12,000-mile supply lines to the Asian slave-factories are also endangered as the US and China contest for Middle East and African oil. The local networks of commercial interdependency which these chain stores systematically destroyed (with the public’s acquiescence) will have to be rebuilt brick-by-brick and inventory-by-inventory. This will require rich, fine-grained, multi-layered networks of people who make, distribute, and sell stuff (including the much-maligned "middlemen"). Don’t be fooled into thinking that the Internet will replace local retail economies. Internet shopping is totally dependent now on cheap delivery, and delivery will no longer be cheap. It also is predicated on electric power systems that are completely reliable. That is something we are unlikely to enjoy in the years ahead. Do you have a penchant for retail trade and don’t want to work for a big predatory corporation? There’s lots to do here in the realm of small, local business. Quit carping and get busy.
6. We will have to make things again in America.
However, we are going to make less stuff. We will have fewer things to buy, fewer choices of things. The curtain is coming down on the endless blue-light-special shopping frenzy that has occupied the forefront of daily life in America for decades. But we will still need household goods and things to wear. As a practical matter, we are not going to re-live the 20th century. The factories from America’s heyday of manufacturing (1900 – 1970) were all designed for massive inputs of fossil fuel, and many of them have already been demolished. We’re going to have to make things on a smaller scale by other means. Perhaps we will have to use more water power. The truth is, we don’t know yet how we’re going to make anything. This is something that the younger generations can put their minds and muscles into.
7. The age of canned entertainment is coming to and end.
It was fun for a while. We liked "Citizen Kane" and the Beatles. But we’re going to have to make our own music and our own drama down the road. We’re going to need playhouses and live performance halls. We’re going to need violin and banjo players and playwrights and scenery-makers, and singers. We’ll need theater managers and stage-hands. The Internet is not going to save canned entertainment. The Internet will not work so well if the electricity is on the fritz half the time (or more).
8. We’ll have to reorganize the education system.
The centralized secondary school systems based on the yellow school bus fleets will not survive the coming decades. The huge investments we have made in these facilities will impede the transition out of them, but they will fail anyway. Since we will be a less-affluent society, we probably won’t be able to replace these centralized facilities with smaller and more equitably distributed schools, at least not right away. Personally, I believe that the next incarnation of education will grow out of the home schooling movement, as home schooling efforts aggregate locally into units of more than one family. God knows what happens beyond secondary ed. The big universities, both public and private, may not be salvageable. And the activity of higher ed itself may engender huge resentment by those foreclosed from it. But anyone who learns to do long division and write a coherent paragraph will be at a great advantage — and, in any case, will probably out-perform today’s average college graduate. One thing for sure: teaching children is not liable to become an obsolete line-of-work, as compared to public relations and sports marketing. Lots to do here, and lots to think about. Get busy, future teachers of America.
9. We have to reorganize the medical system.
The current skein of intertwined rackets based on endless Ponzi buck passing scams will not survive the discontinuities to come. We will probably have to return to a model of service much closer to what used to be called "doctoring." Medical training may also have to change as the big universities run into trouble functioning. Doctors of the 21st century will certainly drive fewer German cars, and there will be fewer opportunities in the cosmetic surgery field. Let’s hope that we don’t slide so far back that we forget the germ theory of disease, or the need to wash our hands, or the fundamentals of pharmaceutical science. Lots to do here for the unsqueamish.
10. Life in the USA will have to become much more local, and virtually all the activities of everyday life will have to be re-scaled.
You can state categorically that any enterprise now supersized is likely to fail — everything from the federal government to big corporations to huge institutions. If you can find a way to do something practical and useful on a smaller scale than it is currently being done, you are likely to have food in your cupboard and people who esteem you. An entire social infrastructure of voluntary associations, co-opted by the narcotic of television, needs to be reconstructed. Local institutions for care of the helpless will have to be organized. Local politics will be much more meaningful as state governments and federal agencies slide into complete impotence. Lots of jobs here for local heroes.
So, that’s the task list for now. Forgive me if I left things out. Quit wishing and start doing. The best way to feel hopeful about the future is to get off your ass and demonstrate to yourself that you are a capable, competent individual resolutely able to face new circumstances.
James Howard Kunstler is a leading writer on the topic of peak oil and the problems it poses for American suburbia. Deeply concerned about the future of our petroleum dependent society, Kunstler believes we must take radical steps to avoid the total meltdown of modern society in the face of looming oil and gas shortages.
- Hope for a New Era: Before/After Examples of Permaculture Earth Restoration – Solving Our Problems From the Ground Up
“An entire social infrastructure of voluntary associations, co-opted by the narcotic of television, needs to be reconstructed.” I had to read that line several times (as I do with many of Kunstler’s pithy sayings). At first I thought of ‘voluntary’ associations in the way many people view the church – one more option among service organizations, school groups, etc, all competing for our precious time. So voluntary in the sense of an option, not a perceived requirement for living.
The days of Christendom and the official church (what I call the ‘oatmeal’ church like the old Quaker oats ads, ‘its the right thing to do’) may be gone, but not forgotten. The church as a social institution has befallen the same affliction as many other groups; addiction to television and techno-toys. Right after 9/11 there was a meme around churches that folks would come back in droves as a result of our collective angst and fear. Ha. We heard the call to ‘go shopping’, and we did; online. Television and internet media (a line more blurry each day) crowd our minds and take up psychic space we’d ordinarily devote to thinking and perhaps even praying.
Thanks for a good article.
I reckon I might move next door to Holmgren, he’d be a pretty good neighbour to have for these times. Actually, these days there are a whole range of people who would make good neighbours for an energy descent future.
Wow thats so really real
Yeah tbh i think there is as much wish and reality here – as the oil dries up i can see other technologies coming to the fore – whether it be hydrogen fuel cell, electric or whatever – i just dont see the big guns packing up and taking their squillions and disappearing into obscurity
Farming will have to change radically – but personal transport – nah
Theres a bloke i know travelling australia in a land rover lwb ute – the whole roof and extended ladder bar from the end of the bonnet to the end of the ute is solar panels – the bottom layer of the ute tray is batteries as is a large amount of the space that used to house the engine
Its now electric powered and he gets about 4-500 km – then parks up in a sunny spot for a day plus or minus depending on the weather and recharges.
With the new capacitor energy storage you could take a tonne of weight off that car and conceivably live the modern life fuel free, emission free with capacitors that last the life of the car.
Unless you were driving long distance you wouldnt even need to stop to recharge. If you did – capacitors can recharge a lot quicker than batteries – seconds rather than hours.
We then have to think about the energy needs and where thats going to come from…..
My bet is liquid thorium – the chinese are all over it ….
Very well said, as usual by Mr Kunsler!
Another article that ‘calls people to take action’ – I like it. Thanks
Except we are never going to run out of oil. Lets set aside the fact that there are likely billions of barrels of oil in deposits below the deep oceans most of which have not been explored yet. We can manufacture crude oil a dozen different ways, from algae/solar reactors, any organic waste (which includes the vast majority of waste, paper, plastic, food, etc. other waste is recycled anyway), we can pull constituent material from sea water or the atmosphere. And transportation, you’ve got to be kidding Tesla’s already solved that problem.
Check out some stuff on EROEI, lots of insight to be gained there.
Thank you. great article. I truly appreciate how concise,articulate and logical you are. So grateful to know that an army of like minded people are working to prepare a better way of living, .
You’re living in a dream! The Tesla is real. Automobiles aren’t going anywhere. Well, they will continue to go everywhere. We are going to have to make changes, but your weird anachronistic ideas are dead wrong. We will inevitably turn into a DIY culture, and this will have rapid and huge ramifications across all sectors of human life. But it’s not going to be low tech. It’s going to be extremely high tech. You’ll just 3d print your own electric car, solar panels, electric tractor, automated cow milking gear, robotic organic orchard equipment, etc.. This is already starting to happen.
Extremely high tech, and the energy will come from…….
Already starting to happen… prototypes with no future but dust collectors on museum shelves while adaptable humans are out rounding up the cows for the semi-automated milking machines more likely.
This is a parody of the world today and how much more before post oil becomes reality.
Great post- much of the traffic brought here by details from the beautiful artwork of R. Crumb’s ‘A Short History of America’. Please give him credit!
people are scared of a possible oil crisis. I say bring it on! Your descriptions of a “new” world sound great! We watched Ann of Greene Gables a few month back. No oil, but life looked amazing. Everyone seemed to be doing just fine.